Monthly Archives: July 2010

Indian Population bane or boon?

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We have heard this many times: India has about 17 percent of the world’s population and just 2 percent of the world’s land area. This imbalance between the number of people and the resources available is the basic reason for India’s woes. Pretty simple argument to find fault with!

 

But is reality as simple?

 

Often looking at issues too closely makes you lose the sight of the bigger picture. So let’s look at some basic facts. The world in 2015 will be populated by some 7.2 billion people, up from 6.1 billion in the year 2000. The rate of world population growth will, have diminished 1.3% in 2005, to approximately 1% in 2015. The financial value of world according to World Bank stood at US$ 28.5 trillion in 2003. This will rise to over US$ 50 trillion by 2015 growing at well over 8% annually. Clearly the world economy is growing at a much faster pace than world’s population. May be there is no correlation between population and economy

 

 

In reality India’s real problem is not population, but its economic policies that over regulated labor and product markets, blocked domestic investments that made India insular

 

So is India’s population really the curse India is carrying? Or will this population itself become India’s new weapon in a rapidly globalizing world? There are three realities that we need to focus on.

 

We will become the youngest nation in the world: Indian population will continue to grow at over 10-12% per annum. Only countries that will keep pace with India are Malaysia, Egypt, Vietnam, Turkey, Indonesia, Brazil and South Africa. Even among these countries India would be uniquely placed. It will be the only country by 2012, which will have more earning population than those who are dependent. India will see sharpest growth in 15-60 year age group. This age group will grow at over 30% from 600 million in 2003 to 800 million by 2016. The young India will pose a serious challenge to growth of China, whose population growth would have slowed down, and whose potential work force would start to stagnate.

 

We will get Richer: India’s 1.1 billion people could see the nation’s wealth per capita doubled. It is estimated that 61,000 individuals now have assets exceeding US$1 million and will double by 20015. India will become the world’s third richest economy by 2020. So not only will we be in top 3 in the world in terms of people power, but also in top three in terms of earning power.  India will remain an open economy and an open society, benefiting from a brain gain rather than losing talent in a brain drain of well-educated young Indian professionals going abroad to seek their fortunes.

 

The over 60 population will be both a challenge and opportunity: The over 60 year population will rise from 90 million in 2003 to over 100 million in 2016. At one end they will put pressure on health care system because of lifestyle diseases and greater life expectancy. At the other they are a new opportunity, as they will also enrich the demographics of the country. As the first generation of post liberalized economy they will bring in their experience into play and remain a part of growing economy.

 

By focusing on these three factors I am not trying to take the focus away from some of our demographic challenges. We need to reduce our infant mortality rates. We need to bring more and more population into the health care fold. We need to ensure that our literacy rates keep on increasing. We need to ensure that rapid increase in urbanization does not speed up decay of an already busting at seams infrastructure. We need to ensure that rural infrastructure continues to develop. All these are real problems, but are not the problems of only population. Most of these actually need optimum utilization of India’s abundant resources. After all we have abundant food grain reserves, forex reserves, natural resources and whatever else is needed. And above all the political will to make it happen.

 

I believe that larger population of India will become an asset rather than a liability to economic growth. To make this happen we have to invest more education and training, and leverage new technologies. In the modern environment, a larger population raises productivity by inducing greater specialization in skills and occupations. And with the world’s developed world struggling to cope with diminishing population, we will for once have the genuine advantage.

 

People of any country are never a bane.

Published in DNA Mumbai, January 9th, 2007

 

 

The rupee agenda

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Money is world’s biggest commodity. It’s a perishable resource. Having money in hand does not guaranty success. If money was a differentiator than brands launched by big companies would never fail and those by smaller companies will never succeed. In early civilization it was precious metals that were used for transactions. In today’s age bullion has given way to paper or plastic.

No wonder there are a very few currencies that have a symbol. Historically the US Dollar, UK Pound, Japanese Yen and European Euro are the only currencies that have a symbol. Now India joins the elite club. Rupee now has a symbol.

So how do we transition Rupee now that we have chosen a logo?

The transition from commodity to a brand is a step by step process. The name is the first step that helps in creating recognition. Creating brand promise is the second step. Having created the promise the brand needs to create an advantage that will help it create preference. And finally the brand needs to nurture a long term relationship for it to create long lasting loyalty.
We have taken the first step with the creation of the symbol. Very soon the symbol will appear on the key boards and the world will know our currency with the new symbol. This really is the start of journey for the Rupee. We cannot stop here, we should not be happy with just having a recognizable symbol. The second step of creating the brand promise is long and arduous. Just for example look at Chinese Renminbi (or Yuan). It doesn’t have a symbol, at least not as yet, but is a far more powerful currency. It has greater weight (higher salience) and greater importance (higher market share) in the world of finance. It looks like that despite not having a logo, the brand has greater promise. The Rupee will increasingly have to battle likes of Renminbi (China), Rouble (Russia) and Real (Brazil). Our economy will have to continue to grow in years to come for the promise to come alive. We will have to work hard to trade in our own currency; we will have to ensure that our weight age in global money market keeps on increasing. This is neither going to be easy nor going to be quick.

The third step of creating preference is going to be a real challenge. Global markets are not going to trade with us in our currency. More importantly our own exports are not going to be linked to Rupee. Dollar and Euro will continue to be the benchmarks. This is where the inherent strengths of a brand have to play a critical role. The strength of our brand is a robust domestic market, a high growth economy and stable monetary policy. This however will need to be backed by growth is market share in world economy. Till we don’t increase our share in global GDP, preference for rupee will remain a distant goal.

And this leads to the issue of enduring relationship. This is the most difficult part. For the new relationship to start, it needs to change some existing relationships. Change in relationships requires multiple triggers, triggers that usually the brand cannot do on its own. Promise and preference help in triggering the new relationship.

We have taken the first step; we have created the identity for Rupee. The journey ahead is long, and a lot needs to be accomplished.

Published at http://www.bestmediainfo.com on 19th July 2010

Alone and aloof or crowded and connected?

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One of the best status messages I have come cross on Facebook says “the only place where it is cool to talk to a wall.” This reflects the popular predictions that pundits have often made about the generation that loves to be online. They have always argued that the online habits will turn a whole generation into antisocial isolated zombies. And that the Google enabled world will make everyone ‘search’ for bite sized info as the appetite for discovering new things will go down tremendously.

Has it really happened?

Dan Tapscott in his book “Grown Up Digital” has debunked many of these popular predictions. He calls this multi tasking, living in multiple dimension generation as Net Generation. He goes on to explain that in order to understand what the future holds we need to understand the Net Generation. He debunks the theory about short attention spans and zero social skills. He terms the Net Generation as remarkably bright community, which has developed revolutionary new ways of thinking, interacting, working, and socializing.

Popular trend watchers have now started to speak about a new trend of ‘mass mingling’ where the net generation will live simultaneously in real and virtual world and make both the worlds meaningful and engaging.

So is technology making people alone and isolated or is technology enabling them to be connected and engaged?

Technology actually has moved to a new level. Version 2.0 of net is not PC but on the mobile. The very basis of the aloof argument has been turned on its head. So now your friends, connections, appointments, and possibly emotions always travel with you.

The basic insight of people wanting to be connected has not changed. It’s this need for connection that had driven 500 Million people to be on Facebook, Twitter, My Space, Four Square, Google Wave etc. and through the act of status updates, feeds, blogs, pictures and interests they broadcast their desire to find new connections. The invariably find new connections and friends through common interests, hobbies, opinions and practices. It doesn’t stop in virtual space only. Look at your Facebook page and see how many event invites are there. By attending any such event people have proactively connected with a bunch of common interest friends in real world. So instead of making the net generation socially challenged, it made them socially active and eclectic.

This version 2.0 of internet may spark off four dominant trends, here’s a look at all four of them

Go out often: Technology has made finding interesting place around the cities easier than ever. Places can not only be discovered, but also is commented upon. This will encourage people to explore their world more. This means people will eat out more often but at a far larger number of places than ever before.

Get bitten by wanderlust: The constant feed of holiday pictures from a variety of locations will encourage people to pack their bags and discover their world more often. The normal holiday hotspots will make way for newer more exotic destinations. May be tourism boards need to revisit the very motivations of travel

Niche will get powered by mainstream: The niche performers, products, brands, bands will increasingly get access to mainstream audiences as customers will become patrons and interest groups will broadcast their approval to a wider set of audience

The world will become large: the world instead of becoming a global village will actually become a very large thriving vibrant mega polis. This will mean more people to meet, more things to do, more smells to savour, more connections to be made.

This is a very interesting transformation that we will see all around us. A generation that was supposed to be socially challenged will challenge the norms of social connectivity.

Published in 4Ps of Marketing, July 15th 2010 issue

Bhopal and changing India

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December 2 1984 is a date that whole of India can never forget. It is on the night of December 2 that the gas leaked from Union Carbide Plant. It is the worst industrial disaster that the world has ever seen. Over 500000 people got exposed to the gas. There is no unanimity on number of dead, it could be between 2500 that the authorities say or 15000 as independent observers say. The world has never witnessed an industrial tragedy of this magnitude

And it’s been 25 years and the case drags on. In these 25 years much has happened. India has seen 5 different Prime Ministers, the state of MP has seen six different chief ministers, the case has dragged on, and the victims wait for relief and compensation. 25 years is a long time

Now I am not building the argument about the case. Everything that has happened till now on the case has been wrong and unjust. Let’s leave it at that just for a while. Let’s look at what has changed in India in last 25 years. Let’s look at India through this prism.

The India of 1984 was a very different India. It was an angry India, and it was an unsure India. Our economy had just started to find its groove; the wave of growth had just started to build. We were not the confident optimistic nation that we have started to become now. May be it was this lack of confidence and lack of trust in ourselves that we let Warren Anderson leave India. May be this was the reason the amount of compensation sought from Union Carbide was paltry.

The country was aghast at what had happened then. The students in colleges protested, the civil society raised its voice, the news papers kept at it and piled on pressure, but eventually the issue faded from active consciousness of the nation. The society in those days had no way of keeping the whole issue alive for a long period of time.

Now, in 2010 when the final judgment on the case has been pronounced the country is nothing like what it was in 1984. India now is a much more assured country in its own right. We are sure of ourselves and brimming with confidence. We are optimistic of our future and know we will make tomorrow brighter. The economy has transformed dramatically, we are a service economy now. In 1984 we looked at World Bank and IMF and they dictated our economic policy. In 2010 the world is looking at India to drive them out of the clutches of recession.

The changes are deeper than macroeconomic in nature. The media is far more widespread. The access to media has gone up many folds. In 1984 we took to streets to protest. The protests were seen as a law and order problem more than the reflection of ground reality. Today the anger and disappointment has been empowered by social media. The protest are no longer on a few streets, it’s everywhere. The protest are no longer restricted to a few people, they involve a much wider audience. The protests then were spontaneous reactions that die down as anger subsides. The protests now can be sustained drive a deeper change. The media today is powered by social media and together they are a potent force, a force that can truly change the fate of victims of Bhopal

And that is the real issue. The tragedy of Bhopal cannot be reversed. But it should not remain a tragedy that affects a small set of people. If we as consumers can use our power to drive changes in brands, communication and social culture than the power should be put to proper use. The true test of social media is here. If we can together drive a change, social media will truly come to life, or else it will remain one of those things that are fashionable to know, but is of little value.

Bhopal and the tragedy should be a turning point in the history of social media. Will it stand up to the test?

Published at http://www.mediaworldbuzz.com